INDIAN commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma recently led a
delegation to Myanmar to revive the Myanmar-India gas pipeline project.
According to the Times of India (June 7), he discussed the possibility
of setting up the pipeline along a land route, bypassing Bangladesh, to
benefit the underdeveloped regions of both northern Myanmar and the
north-eastern states of India.
According to bdnews24 (June 6), the Indian minister proposed to
revive an old proposal to set up a gas pipeline from Myanmar’s western
coast to eastern India through Bangladesh. Without any official
announcement from any quarter, it is difficult to confirm which version
of the news is true.
It may be recalled that India proposed to build the gas pipeline
through Bangladesh in 2004 but it did not materialise because Bangladesh
finally refused to cooperate. It is reported that India later attempted
to build the pipeline through the troubled north-eastern states to
supply gas to Paschmibanga but abandoned the idea due to economic
reasons and security concerns.
The net beneficiary of the failure of the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India
pipeline project was China. Myanmar waited for some time but later
signed contracts with China to build not only a gas pipeline but also an
oil pipeline along the same route. While the gas pipeline will transmit
12 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from western Myanmar,
the oil pipeline will transport crude oil from the Middle East to China
bypassing the US controlled narrow strait between Malaysia and Sumatra
through which about 80% of the country’s total oil imports now pass.
The 800-km pipelines costing $2.5 billion are almost ready. Natural
gas from the off-shore reserves is due to flow from July 1. The oil
pipeline is 97% complete.
It may be mentioned here that China is planning to have an access to
the Bay of Bengal by both road and rail links through Myanmar. To many
observers, it is like discovering a “western coast” for China!
Bangladesh too tried to offer similar facilities to China but the effort
did not materialise.
It is difficult to comprehend why Bangladesh rejected the Indian
proposal in 2005. The estimated cost of the project was $1 billion, most
of which would have been borne by India. In addition to receiving $125
million annually as transit fees, Bangladesh had the option of sharing
the gas with India.
It is probable that Bangladesh had a false notion of “floating over
gas” at that time. It was also planning to export gas to India. The
government failed to correctly assess the gas reserves of Bangladesh and
appreciate the technical and economic merit of the gas pipeline
project. Had Bangladesh agreed to the proposal on the basis of sharing
gas from Myanmar with India, we could perhaps avoid a major power crisis
in Bangladesh and save thousands of crores of Taka which we have been
paying every year now as subsidies for expensive oil-based rental power.
By the way, this was not the only occasion when Bangladesh made
similar mistakes. We foolishly rejected a free offer of linking the
country with the global information superhighway in 1990s. Bangladesh
later signed an agreement with 12 other countries in 2004 at a cost of
Tk.628 crore for installing the submarine cable. The earlier rejection
not only cost us a huge amount of money but also delayed and restrained
the growth of telecommunication and outsourcing services in Bangladesh.
It shows how often we fail to strike while the iron is hot.
Failing to import inexpensive natural gas from a neighbouring country
having a common border with Bangladesh, we are now planning to import
expensive LNG and dirty coal to fuel our power plants. It may be
mentioned here that even hostile neighbours like India and Pakistan
joined hands last year to build a 1,735-kilometre pipeline over
Afghanistan to bring 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually
from Turkmenistan.
The reported proposal to revive the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas
pipeline is most encouraging. If India so desires, it is possible to
serve the north-eastern states of India, Bangladesh and eastern India by
the same gas pipeline. There are, however, doubts whether Myanmar would
have enough gas left for export after meeting the demands of China and
Thailand to whom Myanmar also supplies gas.
According the CIA Factbook, Myanmar has a proven reserve of 283
billion cubic metre and an annual production of 12 billion cubic metre.
Its annual production is likely to double when China receives its full
quota. If local consumption increases at the same time, the proven
reserves of Myanmar are unlikely to last more than a decade.
The good news is that there had been very little exploration of gas
and oil in Myanmar during the last two decades due to UN imposed
sanctions which were lifted only recently. Several major oil companies
of the world, including some from India, are now investing heavily in
both onshore and offshore exploration for hydrocarbons in Myanmar.
Many experts predict a dramatic rise in hydrocarbon reserves of the
country in the near future. Moreover, the Indian oil companies with
interests in exploration in Myanmar are in favour of exporting gas to
India.
Taking these factors into consideration, the prospect of building the
Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline appears to be promising. Both
Bangladesh and India should, therefore, take the proposal seriously and
try to implement it as early as possible.
The writer is a former chief engineer of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission.
http://www.thedailystar.net/beta2/news/myanmar-bangladesh-india-gas-pipeline/
No comments:
Post a Comment