In the more than two years since the government put the brakes on this controversial project, the Chinese company has changed its approach in its dealings with Myanmar. With strategic cleverness CPI has gone the backdoor route, speaking with political parties and other people rather than dealing directly with the government. As a consequence, the Chinese company has faced widespread criticism from the Myanmar public for its plan to resume the Myitsone dam project.
The challenge returns
When the project was suspended in September 2011, it was supposed to be a five-year embargo that ended in 2015. However, before even 2013 had ended, the push to resume Myitsone was back in the news. It seems that China, which provided financial and technical assistance to help Myanmar host the 27th SEA Games, was expecting a quid pro quo: four days after the end of the SEA Games, the Upstream Ayeyawady Confluence Basin Hydropower Company (ACHC) of China held a press conference in Yangon aimed at stimulating interest in resuming the Myitsone dam project. In response to reporters’ questions, CPI’s chief manager said that the company would focus its efforts on negotiations with the next government in 2015 to give Myitsone the green light.
Thus an issue Myanmar citizens once thought was over has arisen from the dead to challenge the country once again.
Environmentalists and local residents in the affected region have responded that they will never allow the Myitsone project to resume. The president has not allowed construction to continue during his presidential tenure. And the president’s spokesperson said that if the concerned company took the project to the courts, Myanmar would respond by citing international laws.
In connection with the ACHC’s attempts to reboot the project through negotiations, Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently interviewed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is being tipped to run for president in 2015.
RFA asked Suu Kyi if she would be willing to resume the project, as the Chinese company had recently said that it would negotiate with the next government in 2015 for that purpose. Suu Kyi replied that there was no other way except negotiation, that the current government must take responsibility, and that it seemed the next government would take responsibility. Based on Suu Kyi’s reply, it appeared that whether or not the project should continue was not a negotiable matter.
Reopening old wounds
The Myitsone dam project was first conceived during an ASEAN-Africa meeting of the Asia-Africa Summit, held in Jakarta in April 2005. At the meeting, then-Senior General Than Shwe, at that time chairman of the State Peace and Development Council government, discussed with Chinese President Hu Jintao the construction of the Myitsone dam project and agreed to sell natural gas to China.
According to the agreement, a feasibility study was conducted in December 2006. Even at that early stage, there was disagreement about the project inside the government. But China urged Myanmar to start the project as soon as possible. Tension remained between the two countries on account of the 2009 Kokang conflict, in which fighting between the Myanmar armed forces and a local ethnic group near the border prompted a stern warning from China that called for Myanmar to resolve its domestic issues in order to maintain stability in the border region. Maung Aye, then vice-senior general and vice-chair of the SPDC, visited China in June 2009. On June 21 that year, Myanmar ambassador to China Thein Lwin and chairman Lu Qizhou of the CPI company had signed an agreement on the construction of the Myitsone hydropower project on the Ayeyarwaddy River. Secretary-1 Tin Aung Myint Oo, then an SPDC general, accompanied the vice-senior general on his goodwill visit to China.
The opening ceremony to mark the start of construction for the Myitsone dam project was held on December 21, 2009.
Then-Colonel Zaw Min, the Minister of Electric Power, announced that the project would start soon.
According to the agreement, the Ministry of Electric Power, Asia World Company and the CPI of China would jointly carry out the project. The project was principally owned by the CPI, which had an 80-percent share, along with the Ministry of Electric Power with a 15-percent share, and Asia World Company with a 5-percent share. The project was originally to last for 30 years, but it was later extended to 50 years. It was initially expected to generate 3,600 megawatts but that estimate was later boosted to 6,000 megawatts.
CPI is a state-owned power generation corporation and one of the largest power-generating enterprises in China. The company is managed by the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) of China. CPI invests in the development, construction and management of power plants in the 27 provinces of China. CPI provides an estimated value of about 10 percent of China’s consumed electricity.
Once the Myitsone dam project commences, Myanmar is scheduled to receive US$ 54 billion (Ks 53.24 trillion) over the 50-year life of the project. After the 50 years, Myanmar will receive US$ 160 billion, according to statistics collected by CPI. But in accordance with the International Rivers Report, 90 percent of the electricity accrued from the Myitsone Dam project (about 6,000 megawatts) will go to the China. Moreover, China will also receive 70 percent of the profits resulting from the project. The Myitsone Dam project, meanwhile, would be the 15th largest dam project in the world.
If we look at this project strictly from an economic point of view, it is a bullying act against Myanmar that seriously damages the national interest because it is extremely perilous not only for Kachin State but for all of Myanmar. But if we look at the project from an environmental point of view, the risk factors for damage that would result from a natural disaster in the project area are high. These facts, combined, should be enough to end the Myitsone dam project once and for all.
Safeguard the Ayeyawaddy, Safeguard Myanmar
The Myitsone dam project, the result of a deal with China struck by the State Peace and Development Council military dictatorship, began construction in 2009. There was no public consultation whatsoever. After the new government took office following the 2010 election, objections to the Myitsone dam grew louder.
The voices came from environmentalists, celebrities from various fields, scholars, and even ordinary Myanmar citizens who spoke out to demand that the project be scrapped.
Among those objections, the most prominent instances include the “Save the Irrawaddy” talk show held on September 10 and the “Environment and Myanmar” talk show held on September 24.
During both talk shows, members of the public openly objected to the comments of Union Minister Zaw Min of the Ministry of Electric Power (1), who said that construction for Myitsone would continue, and that the government would never give up on the project no matter whatever objections arise.
Environmentalist U Ohn objected to the construction of dam at the confluence of the rivers and called for the government not to put the confluence area at risk.
Win Myo Thu, from the economically progressive Ecosystem Development group (EcoDev), raised 20 issues that explained the bad consequences that would result from building the Myitsone dam, concluding that the project must be ended. Meteorologist Tun Lwin added that, because the Myitsone dam project hinders national security and the risk of future natural disaster is great, the project must be halted. Approving the Myitsone dam, he added would destroy the Ayeyawaddy river.
The Myitsone dam project is located on a vulnerable fault line in an earthquake-hit area. According to CPI, the dam could endure a quake of up to 8 on the Richter scale. But if one factors in management error during the course of project implementation, the dam could not stand shocks of more than 7 or 8 on the Richter scale. Over the last hundred years, three earthquakes exceeding 7.5 on the Richter scale have hit areas close to Kachin State and the Ayeyawaddy River. They are the Karmine earthquake in 1931, the Takaung earthquake in 1946 and the Hteegyaint earthquake in 1991. In 1994, another earthquake hit Myitkyina and it was a 6 on the Richter scale.
According to global climate change patterns, if an 8 Richter scale earthquake hit the Myitsone dam project area, all the water in the dam would flood the plains of Kachin State and the Myitkyina area and untold thousands of lives would be lost.
Under the contract, Myanmar is scheduled to earn about US$ 57 billion over the 50-year life of the Myitsone dam project. But according to a paper written by the Ministry of Electric Power, the real figure is only US$ 17 billion. So, Myanmar will really receive about US$ 300 million per year while the maintenance fee will be US$100 million per year.
The projected cost for environmental losses is higher than originally estimated, so the Myitsone dam project needs to be re-evaluated, according to a report by the Biodiversity and Nature Conservation Association (BANCA). CPI has ignored some Chinese experts’ reports.
Moreover, the Ayeyawaddy River’s water levels will recede severely due to the Myitsone dam, devastating all human life and the ecosystem along its banks.
Eleven Media Group CEO Than Htut Aung, during the “Environment and Myanmar talk” programme, said that the decision-makers would forever have Myitsone on their consciences.
“Every citizen, no matter which religion or race he belongs to, if he lives in the Union of Myanmar and is faithful to his country, is our brethren. What I would like to say about the Myitsone dam project is that, if it is forced to go ahead, I would never think this was a fair deed if I were a Kachin national. If I were a Myanmar citizen [from any part of the country], my guilty conscience would always tell me that I had taken advantage of a weak national race. If I were a Shan or a Kayin national, I would always doubt [the word of government] because of what was done to the Kachin people through this decision."
It’s up to the president
With the voices calling to stop the Myitsone project louder than ever, the role of the parliament had never been stronger as the issue came before the president. However, in his letter to the parliament on September 30, 2011, Thein Sein only called for the suspension, not the cancellation, of the Myitsone project.
According to sources from the president’s office, that fateful decision was a calculated risk while the government was still depending on China without the help of the US and the EU, which at that point were still imposing sanctions on Myanmar.
The president had no choice but to suspend the Myitsone project because of obstinate people in his government, in addition concerns around border affairs, the relationship between Myanmar and China, and restrictive provisions of the constitution.
“At that time I spoke with at least four government officers from the ministry who told me that the president summoned 16 people from his government and told them that he would suspend the Myitsone project. And he talked about it in the parliament. So everyone in the parliament was amazed by his decision,” said Min Zin, an anti-Myitsone activist since 2009.
“Everyone knows that former vice president Tin Aung Myint Oo was the main person involved in the implementing of Myitsone. Also, he was assumed to be a trusted adviser of former military junta Senior General Than Shwe. Thein Sein made his decision without consulting most ministers. Some sources say that the retired Than Shwe was willing to accept this decision under certain conditions. Whatever the case, no changes were made within the first six months of the Thein Sein administration. The first noticeable change was the Myitsone project. That was a risk to take at that time.”
Min Zin added that the change might have come as the result of geographical conditions, in which case further investigation should have been conducted to resolve the issue.
“The president was taking a risk to stop the project under the pressure of breaking the contract, in accordance with international investment law. But how can the president deal with this situation by sweeping all the problems with it under the mat? He puts himself in a very difficult situation, having made a decision like that. I think it sets a bad precedent, to hand the ultimate decision on resuming the project to next government,” he said.
According to the president’s office, the decision was made by the president himself. Suspending the project seemed like a better idea at the time.
Although the project has been temporarily halted, the government has been working on returning CPI staff and the company’s heavy machinery to China, preparing to respond with international law if the CPI takes legal action, and trying to prevent diplomatic fall-out so as not to damage ties between both countries, according to sources from the president’s office.
China’s reaction
The halting of the Myitsone project has made Chinese leaders angry. Moreover, Chinese media strongly oppose the decision.
Although the CPI said during the December press conference that the company would continue working on the legal issues, there were no plans for legal action yet. CPI officials did say that the company is losing US$50 million a year because of the construction postponement after investing US$ 1.2 billion in the project.
On the day after the project was halted, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked the Myanmar government to protect CPI’s benefit in the Myitsone dam. Moreover, the Chinese officials asked Myanmar to discuss resumption of the project. As per this request, Myanmar’s foreign minister and his delegation visited China. Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo also met with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao during his visit to the Nanning trade fair in China.
During the meeting, China urged Myanmar to resume the Myitsone project. The Chinese premier said that Myanmar should continue to implement projects that have been agreed to by both leaders and should fulfill the promises made by the former government.
Chinese media have strongly criticized Myanmar and used strong language, including suggestions that action should be taken against the country for breaking a promise, that Myanmar has no credentials to exist in the international community, and that serious action should be taken against Myanmar for having put a strain on China-Myanmar relations.
In the aftermath of the Myitsone project’s postponement, Chinese dam projects in Africa are also being halted.
CPI refuses to back down
People in this country will not accept this project, whoever takes responsibility for it and even if its continuation is subject to rules and regulations.
One remaining question concerns the Myanmar government’s statement that it will respond with international law if the CPI takes legal action against it. CPI has not responded yet. Although the Chinese company said it would deal with rules and regulations regarding the resumption of the project, there has been no sign of legal action after more than two years. But that is because CPI is trying to resume the project without having to take legal action.
In a bid to persuade local residents to accept the project, the Chinese company has flooded the mediasphere with propaganda videos and fact sheets related to the Myitsone project.
In October 2013, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of Myanmar’s armed forces, visited China. This followed President Thein Sein’s visit the previous month.
The Chinese government has invited to Beijing members of political parties, including the National League for Democracy as well as MPs and organizations such as the 88 Generation Peace and Open Society. The visits, sponsored by CPI, are aimed at explaining the Myitsone project and convincing visitors to support its resumption.
Although the company has tried to bribe Myanmar delegates, they did not accept them. Some escorts were even sent to entertain the guests, according to a delegate from the NLD who visited China.
Besides inviting political parties to China, the company has also tried to persuade the media by holding press conferences and offering incentives.
During the press conference held by the ACHC four days after the Sea Games, much persuasive talk was heard from the company’s officials.
CPI is also preparing to open a branch office in Nay Pyi Taw with the intention of resuming the project after the 2015 Myanmar election.
Chinese investment and Myanmar’s future
Chinese investment in Myanmar has fallen sharply after the suspension of the Myitsone project. However, investment from the United States and the EU countries has increased.
Chinese investment has fallen from US$12 billion (Ks 11.83 trillion) from 2008-2012 to US$407 million (Ks 401 billion) in 2013.
Based on this figure, some international commentary has suggested that the drop in Chinese investment is bad for Myanmar.
According to these articles, Chinese officials have advised Myanmar to restart some of the suspended Chinese projects.
However, historian Aung Khin has told VOA that Myanmar does not see a drop in Chinese investment as a disadvantage.
Aung Khin said that combined local and foreign investment in Myanmar has increased fivefold from the previous fiscal year.
Foreign investment in Myanmar has exceeded US$ 1.4 billion (Ks 1.4 trillion) and is expected to reach US$ 3 billion (Ks 3 trillion) at the end of the year. So foreign investment here will not decrease as China has expected, even though Chinese investment has dropped.
It’s not about compromise
In the wake of CPI’s stated intention to negotiate with the new government after 2015 to restart the project, environmentalists and activists have told Weekly Eleven News journal that the Myitsone dam is not an issue that requires compromise.
The environmentalists and activists said a final decision should be made on whether or not the project should be restarted and the provisions mentioned in the contract should be settled in accordance with the law. They also voiced their rejection of the Chinese company’s attempt to restart the project.
“This is not a negotiable subject. The blunt answer is no. I see this as CPI’s attempt to cover their mistake. It’s clear on their side that the public does not accept [the project]. Their project is wrong. It’s a wrong economic decision. I see this as an attempt to recover their prestige,” said environmental activist Kyaw Thu.
“No compromise is needed for the Myitsone, because this issue is not only concerned with the environment but also with national unity and for all future generations to live peacefully on this land with clear views toward each other in the long run,” said environmental activist Myint Zaw.
Geologist Soe Thura Tun said that, from an academic point of view, this project should never have even begun.
“It should not be negotiated. We should see the whole Ayeyarwady River, not just Myitsone. This way is wrong. We should look at the Ayeyarwady. It’s not just a small area,” said Ko Tar, an environmental activist and writer.
China has many companies running business projects in Myanmar. Apart from the suspended Myitsone, the key projects among them are the Kyaukphyu gas pipeline and the Letpadaungtaung copper mine.
With the Letpadaungtaung project currently under negotiations, the remaining projects with China have become the focus of renewed attention. There are those who worry that the final decision on Myitsone might be decided like the Letpadaungtaung.
“I’m afraid it will be decided like the Letpadaungtaung. That decision [to continue the project] was not right, I think. Good results did not come from it. Everybody suffered losses. Daw Suu herself lost. The project itself lost. Mainly the people are also at a loss. It’s not the kind of decision that satisfies everyone. ‘Negotiation’ is a word the people become afraid of and dislike,” said Kyaw Thu.
China, apart from seeking a compromise solution to resume the Myitsone project, is also trying to build a railroad along the Kyaukphyu gas pipeline across the central part of the country. These two projects have a direct and negative impact on the country’s national security as well as its national interests, possibly resulting in a compromised national defense.
Min Zin wonders whether CPI truly intends to build the Myitsone project without interruption.
“Sometimes it can be misleading work. For example, the Rakhine issue arose at a time when the natural gas pipeline was ready to operate in the state. Now a railroad is under way to build along the pipeline,” he said. “Is the Myitsone project being highlighted again in an effort to mislead the public focus? Journalists and researchers should follow this angle in detail. I think this must be a made-up work to mislead.”
The Myitsone project, at a cost of about US$ 3.6 billion, is the priciest of the three mega-projects that China is determined to see through, with the Letpadaungtaung project estimated to be worth more than US$ 1 billion and the natural gas pipeline project worth about US$ 2.5 billion.
According to the contract agreements, ending the Myitsone project completely will require an act of parliament.
source: Eleven Myanmar
No comments:
Post a Comment