BANGKOK (AP) — Blessed with natural resources,
including significant gas reserves and precious gems, Myanmar has the
potential to more than quadruple the size of its economy by 2030 if it
manages to diversify, build infrastructure and maintain political
stability, a report said Friday.
The McKinsey Global Institute said Myanmar has
the land, manpower and resources to expand the size of its economy from
$45 billion in 2010 to more than $200 billion by 2030.
Growth potential rests mostly four key areas —
energy and mining, agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure. Of
these, manufacturing is by far the most important since companies could
conceivably relocate to Myanmar from China and other Asian countries
where wages are rising, said the report by MGI, the research arm of
management consulting firm McKinsey & Company.
‘‘Myanmar is coming of age in the digital era.
If it uses technology fully and innovatively — in banking, government,
health care, agriculture, education, and retail — Myanmar could leapfrog
interim development phases to become one of the world’s fastest-growing
economies,’’ Fraser Thompson, an MGI senior fellow, said in the report.
Myanmar’s gross domestic product is now less
than 1 percent of Asia’s GDP or roughly equivalent to cities such as New
Delhi and Johannesburg. It is the poorest country in Southeast Asia,
its economy stunted by decades of international sanctions and strict
import controls imposed by its former military junta.
Labor productivity is 70 percent lower than
other countries in the region, and the population has only an average of
four years of schooling. Only 4 percent of Myanmar’s population has
enough income for discretionary spending, compared with 35 percent of
the global population, the report said.
But the potential is high for growth. Myanmar
has arable land, water and a large but unskilled workforce, the report
said. What the country needs now to fulfill its potential for sharp
growth is political stability, infrastructure development, and the rule
of law.
Myanmar had one of the region’s strongest
economies in the 1950s but plunged into a decline after a coup in 1962
instituted military rule with a socialist bent. Myanmar, then called
Burma, was declared a least-developed nation by the United Nations in
1987. The status is given to countries with the lowest indicators of
socio-economic development according to the U.N.’s Human Development
Index.
The country began undertaking political
reforms in 2011 after the country’s military junta handed power to a
nominally civilian government. But new freedoms of speech and assembly
have provided opportunities for some groups to disseminate radical
views, sparking violence between religious and ethnic groups.
Buddhist-Muslim tensions are particularly high.
Still, foreign investors have been rushing in.
In April, Ford Motor Co. announced its entry into Myanmar, saying it
plans to open its first sales and service showroom for new vehicles by
August. The U.S. automaker joins PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, GE, Caterpillar and
Danish brewer Carlsberg, which have all signed distribution deals in
Myanmar.
Longtime ally China has been one of Myanmar’s
biggest international backers for years, pouring billions of dollars
into the extraction of gems, timber, oil and gas. Thailand has also been
a significant investor. Japan, meanwhile, is stepping up its investment
and has canceled billions in old debt and is doling out new
low-interest loans.
‘‘For much of the 20th century, Myanmar
largely missed out on the spectacular growth seen across most of the
global economy and most recently in its Asian peers,’’ Richard Dobbs, a
McKinsey director, said in the report. ‘‘It now has the potential to be
one of the fastest-growing economies in emerging Asia.’’
source: Boston.com
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