After the Cabinet was formed on Dec. 26, Abe sent
his deputy, Taro Aso, a former prime minister now in charge of the
finance ministry, to Myanmar.
Many in Japan felt little surprise over why
the first trip for a prominent leader of a newly established government
should be to a relatively small country like Myanmar. The explanation
was that it was part of the new foreign policy that focuses on a
stronger Japanese economic presence in Asia, particularly in Southeast
Asia.
This policy seems to respond well to an earlier
call for Japan to act in support of the United States' "Asia Pivot"
policy. But while the obvious goal for Japan is to reach out to many
potential markets in Southeast Asia, analysts perceive Tokyo's latest
foreign policy ambition as an attempt to reduce Chinese influence in the
region.
Over the years Japan has forged friendly ties
with Southeast Asian nations. In the context of ASEAN (the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations), Japan has been a well-respected,
full-dialogue partner since 1977. In ASEAN's view, this relationship has
been good but not excellent, and somewhat taken for granted
particularly by the Japanese. Japan has invested its diplomatic energy
mainly in its alliance with the U.S. — an imperative foreign policy
choice for Japan. Clearly there has been a lack of strategy in the
Japan-ASEAN partnership.
In retrospect, Japan's diplomatic activism
toward Southeast Asia was evident in 1977 following the announcement of
the Fukuda Doctrine. Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, while paying an
official visit to Manila, made famous the speech in which he articulated
his country's new diplomatic initiative. The speech indicated that, for
the first time in the post-World War II era, Japan was eager to play an
active role in both economic and political affairs in Southeast Asia
without depending on military imperatives, and in a way as to make
military considerations less prominent.
The doctrine consisted of three key points:
rejection of the role of a military power, promotion of the relationship
of mutual confidence and trust ("heart-to-heart" diplomacy), and equal
partnership with ASEAN for building peace and prosperity throughout
Southeast Asia.
But while the Fukuda Doctrine continued to
serve as the bedrock of Japan's diplomacy toward Southeast Asia, it was
not brought up to date according to the changing regional environment,
at least not until 2008, when Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda upgraded his
father's doctrine through the "Inland Sea" vision.
The Fukuda Doctrine failed to prepare Japan
for coping with new developments in the region. One major development
has been the rise of China. In the past decade, China has emerged as a
major regional power while American hegemony has been in decline. It is
becoming more assertive and influential in Southeast Asia, prompting
Japan to urgently search for a new way to counterbalance rising China
and to protect its interests in Southeast Asia.
The proposal for an East Asian Community by
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2002 represented Japan's drive for
regionalism to consolidate its position in the region. But even Japan's
concept of an East Asian Community has died down.
Back in Myanmar, while promoting bilateral
ties was Japan's top priority, there was also a hidden agenda. China has
made inroads into Myanmar, both in political influence and economic
domination.
Undoubtedly, Aso's trip to Naypyidaw could be
interpreted as Japan's move to counteract the Chinese impact in this
country, and the region at large.
A Sino-Japanese conflict of sorts intensified
last year. A dispute over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea
(called Diaoyu in Chinese) has damaged diplomatic relations, which
already suffer from historical wounds.
The conflict between Japan and China
demonstrate a reality in which the two powers are competing for a
greater control over the Southeast Asian region. China is wary of
Japan's renewed interest in Southeast Asia with the backing of its U.S.
ally. So Beijing kept a watchful eye on Aso's landmark trip to Myanmar.
Long years of halfhearted Japanese engagement with Southeast Asia opened
the door for China to take full advantage of the leadership gap.
Overcoming the Chinese influence in Southeast
Asia will be difficult for Japan. That's because China is pursuing a
more aggressive approach to ensure a strong relationship with Southeast
Asia and ASEAN. In the words of Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan
Yew: "It has become the norm in Southeast Asia for China to take the
lead and Japan to tag along. Since Japan has been unable to recover its
economy, it has had no choice but to allow China to take the
initiative."
The issue of Japan's economic recession could prove to be a major obstacle in Japan's new active foreign policy.
At the heart of this issue lies a crucial
question: Is the Abe administration really ready to take on Southeast
Asia and to enter into competition with China?
Pavin Chachavalpongpun is an associate professor at Kyoto University's Center for Southeast Asian Studies.
source: Japan Times
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